December Panel Prices Remain Stable, Likely to Persist Through Q1 Next Year
According to CINNO Research, as December begins and the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, many brands are stocking up in advance. Meanwhile, the current national subsidy policy is about to end, but a new round of subsidies slated for 2025 is expected to take over and continue supporting the market. In the U.S., anticipated tariff hikes are likely to temporarily boost demand by year-end. Considering the rebound in demand and year-end performance goals, panel manufacturers are expected to increase utilization rates in November and December to meet growing order volumes.
On the demand side, November saw a rapid recovery in market activity, driven by China's "trade-in" policy and promotional events such as Double 11 and Black Friday. Domestic brands actively rolled out high energy-efficiency TV products, capitalizing on the short-term spike in demand. During the Double 11 event, major domestic brands like Xiaomi, TCL, Hisense, and Skyworth reported year-on-year growth in combined sales across platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin. Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates a steady increase in the daily number of participants in the appliance subsidy program.
In December, fueled by favorable activities like the "Double 12" shopping festival, market demand is expected to remain strong in the short term, significantly outpacing previous years.
On the supply side, panel manufacturers reduced utilization rates in October to control production. This helped stabilize prices amidst tighter supply conditions. As demand continued to recover in November, panel makers eased production cuts, focusing on meeting year-end shipment goals while maintaining price stability. Average utilization rates for high-generation lines in China were expected to climb to 83%, with rates for large-sized panel production lines like G10.5/11 and G8.6 increasing to approximately 90% and 80%, respectively. For December, average utilization rates are expected to remain around 80%.
CINNO Research predicts that TV market demand will continue to recover in December, while panel manufacturers further relax production controls. With supply and demand in balance, prices for mainstream panel sizes (32” to 85”) are expected to remain largely unchanged from November levels. Current panel prices are in a stabilization phase, a trend that is anticipated to persist through the first quarter of next year.