Taiwanese media DigiTimes, which has a fairly reliable history of breaking news, reports that it expects Intel's CPU shortage to continue until the end of 2020. We have already seen such a prediction for quite a long time, after all, the company's CEO Bob Swan also gave a frank explanation of the current situation. Multiple reports in other regions also suggest that more and more partners are considering favoring the AMD camp.
The capacity of Intel's chip factories has been saturated and it is difficult to meet excess demand. But to maintain shipments, OEMs and AIB manufacturers must switch to AMD, which means competitors will win more market share previously held by Intel.
In addition, OEM / AIB manufacturers can't stand the premium of Intel chips, and AMD just provides a more cost-effective alternative. In this context, Intel may have to drag until the second half of 2021 to turn things around again.
According to a recent Gartner report, Intel has reclaimed the number one crown, but it also means that its factory capacity has reached its limit. However, in terms of process technology, the 7nm product line based on extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) should not be affected by the 10nm delay.
According to the roadmap, Intel plans to release the first 7nm product in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the company's CEO frankly acknowledges that it has lost a large portion of the CPU market share.
Bob Swan attributes the problem to three areas. The first is an increase in demand for CPUs and server chips (21%), which is much faster than expected in 2018 (only 10%).
Secondly, Intel won 100% market share of smartphone modems, but this puts greater demand pressure on its own factories.
The third is the 10nm process jump ticket, which has brought greater pressure to improve the performance of the previous generation 14nm process. Especially as the number of cores increases, the chip size also becomes larger.
Although most of the content is the same, it is the first time that Intel has given sufficient reasons why it cannot meet the demand for capacity. The side also reflects why the company restarted the 22nm production line to make up for the 14nm supply and demand gap.
If all goes well, Intel is expected to fully switch to the 7nm EUV process (equivalent to TSMC's 5nm process) in the fourth quarter of 2021 and enable the 5nm process (equivalent to TSMC's 3nm) in 2024.