DRAMeXchange Consulting: Affected by the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the average price of NAND Flash may reverse in advance in the second half of the year
According to the latest survey by DRAMeXchange, although the new crown pneumonia epidemic has continued to make terminal product shipments in the first quarter of 2020 particularly weak, in the field of NAND Flash, the supply of The annual growth rate of yuan output has converged to 30%, coupled with the conservative capital expenditure of major suppliers, the average price of NAND Flash in the first quarter still rose by about 5% in the off-season.
Looking forward to the second quarter, the buyer attitude of data centers in North America and China is still quite positive. Enterprise SSDs have also become the most obvious products out of stock in all application categories. As the share of Enterprise SSDs in the overall NAND Flash shipments continues to increase, the strong price performance will also drive the overall average NAND Flash price to rise by at least 5% in the second quarter.
DRAMeXchange observes that the current OEM customers intend to establish safety stocks as soon as possible, and continue to increase the purchase volume in the second quarter due to concerns that the epidemic may impact the NAND Flash production towns in China and South Korea; under these considerations, do not rule out The current state of bargaining enthusiasm may imply some duplication or double booking.
As for the spot market and the channel side, the price weakness of NAND Flash is already obvious. Except for wafers, due to the pressure of relevant channel vendors to cash in and sell, some brands of SSD products have also started to fall.
At present, the overall demand for NAND Flash in the second quarter is supported by Enterprise SSDs, and the rise in other items is relatively weak. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, as the global epidemic spreads faster than expected, the rise of NAND Flash may reverse in the second half of the year, and may even begin to decline as early as the third quarter.
Client SSD prices continue to rise in the second quarter due to tight supply, eMMC / UFS orders have not been reduced for the time being
Because most NAND Flash original manufacturers tend to shift production capacity to Enterprise SSD to obtain higher gross profit than the consumer solid state drive (Client SSD) product line, the supply of Client SSD is in a tight situation.
On the demand side, even though notebook shipments in the first quarter were significantly affected by the epidemic, the purchase side believes that the subsequent client SSD prices will continue to rise, so it has not revised the current or even the second quarter purchase volume, in order to improve security Inventory levels make it more likely that Client SSD prices will continue to rise in the second quarter, which is expected to increase by at least 5%.
In the eMMC / UFS market, although the production of smart phones and other consumer products have been affected by the epidemic, the server / data center's demand for SSDs has not seen a decline, and the health of suppliers' inventory levels has enabled them to reserve the original mobile phone market Wafers are used for SSD production, so there is no obvious oversupply at present.
From the perspective of demand from mobile phone brand manufacturers, because the NAND Flash inventory level is not high, coupled with the expected subsequent price rise and the epidemic situation may affect supply and logistics, the procurement plan has not been adjusted.
However, the rapid spread of the global epidemic has caused suppliers and brand factories to begin to assess the possibility of a decline in demand in the second half of the year, which may have an impact on purchasing demand in the second half of the year. For small and medium-capacity eMMC consumer products such as televisions and set-top boxes, although orders are still maintained at this stage, they may also face the pressure of inventory correction in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the price of eMMC in the second quarter will still increase by more than 5%, but the increase may be difficult to continue into the third quarter.
Wafer price is still supported in the short term, but it does not rule out that it will weaken before the end of the second quarter
Since the fourth quarter of 2019, due to the strong demand for SSDs in servers and data centers, and the emerging demand for SSDs from new gaming machines, under the product crowding effect, suppliers have reduced their supply to the Wafer market, which has led to price increases. .
At this stage, we still have not seen server / data center demand downgrades and delays in the market launch of Wafers. Wafer supply is still quite limited. Therefore, Chinstate Consulting expects that the Wafer market will still have short-term support momentum in March and April. Demand for the three major end products in the first half of the year is likely to be affected by the epidemic, and it is impossible to rule out the possibility that the Wafer market will start to weaken at the end of the second quarter.
Looking forward to the second quarter, the buyer attitude of data centers in North America and China is still quite positive. Enterprise SSDs have also become the most obvious products out of stock in all application categories. As the share of Enterprise SSDs in the overall NAND Flash shipments continues to increase, the strong price performance will also drive the overall average NAND Flash price to rise by at least 5% in the second quarter.
DRAMeXchange observes that the current OEM customers intend to establish safety stocks as soon as possible, and continue to increase the purchase volume in the second quarter due to concerns that the epidemic may impact the NAND Flash production towns in China and South Korea; under these considerations, do not rule out The current state of bargaining enthusiasm may imply some duplication or double booking.
As for the spot market and the channel side, the price weakness of NAND Flash is already obvious. Except for wafers, due to the pressure of relevant channel vendors to cash in and sell, some brands of SSD products have also started to fall.
At present, the overall demand for NAND Flash in the second quarter is supported by Enterprise SSDs, and the rise in other items is relatively weak. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, as the global epidemic spreads faster than expected, the rise of NAND Flash may reverse in the second half of the year, and may even begin to decline as early as the third quarter.
Client SSD prices continue to rise in the second quarter due to tight supply, eMMC / UFS orders have not been reduced for the time being
Because most NAND Flash original manufacturers tend to shift production capacity to Enterprise SSD to obtain higher gross profit than the consumer solid state drive (Client SSD) product line, the supply of Client SSD is in a tight situation.
On the demand side, even though notebook shipments in the first quarter were significantly affected by the epidemic, the purchase side believes that the subsequent client SSD prices will continue to rise, so it has not revised the current or even the second quarter purchase volume, in order to improve security Inventory levels make it more likely that Client SSD prices will continue to rise in the second quarter, which is expected to increase by at least 5%.
In the eMMC / UFS market, although the production of smart phones and other consumer products have been affected by the epidemic, the server / data center's demand for SSDs has not seen a decline, and the health of suppliers' inventory levels has enabled them to reserve the original mobile phone market Wafers are used for SSD production, so there is no obvious oversupply at present.
From the perspective of demand from mobile phone brand manufacturers, because the NAND Flash inventory level is not high, coupled with the expected subsequent price rise and the epidemic situation may affect supply and logistics, the procurement plan has not been adjusted.
However, the rapid spread of the global epidemic has caused suppliers and brand factories to begin to assess the possibility of a decline in demand in the second half of the year, which may have an impact on purchasing demand in the second half of the year. For small and medium-capacity eMMC consumer products such as televisions and set-top boxes, although orders are still maintained at this stage, they may also face the pressure of inventory correction in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the price of eMMC in the second quarter will still increase by more than 5%, but the increase may be difficult to continue into the third quarter.
Wafer price is still supported in the short term, but it does not rule out that it will weaken before the end of the second quarter
Since the fourth quarter of 2019, due to the strong demand for SSDs in servers and data centers, and the emerging demand for SSDs from new gaming machines, under the product crowding effect, suppliers have reduced their supply to the Wafer market, which has led to price increases. .
At this stage, we still have not seen server / data center demand downgrades and delays in the market launch of Wafers. Wafer supply is still quite limited. Therefore, Chinstate Consulting expects that the Wafer market will still have short-term support momentum in March and April. Demand for the three major end products in the first half of the year is likely to be affected by the epidemic, and it is impossible to rule out the possibility that the Wafer market will start to weaken at the end of the second quarter.