Apple's next iPhone will be designed with graphite sheets, and the actual market demand for VC will be lower.
Shortly after the launch of the iPhone 11 series, the forecast master Tian Feng International Guo Mingxi published a forecast for the 2020 iPhone.
Guo Mingqi said: "We believe that the soaking plate (VC: vacuum cavity heat sink cooling) is not necessary for 5G mobile phone design, this is the biggest difference between our forecast and market consensus. We believe that the new 5G iPhone will use graphite flakes in the second half of 2020. The design, with Huawei's 2020 VC demand revised down 50%, for 2020 5G mobile phone demand for the average hot plate is significantly lower than expected."
From the words of Guo Mingxi, it can be known that the demand for the hot plate will drop significantly. He summarized this into three main reasons. First, the mainstream process of the processor will enter the 5nm/5nm+EUV era in 2020. It can effectively reduce the power consumption of mobile phones; secondly, Qualcomm does not recommend VC in the 5G mobile phone reference design provided to brand customers in the near future; the last 5G is not popular in 2020, so 5G mobile phones will mostly integrate through 4G, or 5G and 4G. The way to go online, power consumption is lower than expected.
Subsequently, Guo Mingxi also predicted the adoption of the VC program in the mobile phone field in 2020. First, Apple, they have the advantages of hardware and software integration, so it is expected that the 2020 5G iPhone will follow the lower cost graphite sheet design instead of the market expected VC. Secondly, Huawei benefited from advanced SoC process and system design. Therefore, Huawei's 5G mobile phone power consumption in 2020 will be lower than expected, and Huawei's 2020 VC demand will be revised down to 50-60 million. It is believed that Huawei will use a large number of heat pipes or heat pipes + graphite sheets instead of VC. The third mention of Samsung, the market expects Samsung 5G A series mobile phones will use VC, but from the actual situation, only the highest-end S series and Note series will use VC, so Samsung's VC demand will be lower than expected. Finally, he mentioned other Chinese brands. Considering the high-power consumption of Qualcomm and MediaTek's mid-range 5G chips, and the 5G mobile phones only support Sub-6GHz, the power consumption is relatively low, so the VC demand will be lower than expected. .
At present, the market expects that the demand for VC in each month in 2020 is about 20 million pieces or more. However, Guo Minghao expects VC demand per month to be only about 9-10 million pieces, which is about 50% of the market expectation. Previously, the outside world speculated that the mobile phone field would use VC extensively, which led to the market expectation of VC demand is high.
However, from Guo Mingxi's discourse, we can analyze that the power consumption of 5G chips is generally not high, and the initial stage of 5G commercial use will be integrated with 5G and 4G, so the actual demand for the soaking plate will not be very high. Big.
Guo Mingqi said: "We believe that the soaking plate (VC: vacuum cavity heat sink cooling) is not necessary for 5G mobile phone design, this is the biggest difference between our forecast and market consensus. We believe that the new 5G iPhone will use graphite flakes in the second half of 2020. The design, with Huawei's 2020 VC demand revised down 50%, for 2020 5G mobile phone demand for the average hot plate is significantly lower than expected."
From the words of Guo Mingxi, it can be known that the demand for the hot plate will drop significantly. He summarized this into three main reasons. First, the mainstream process of the processor will enter the 5nm/5nm+EUV era in 2020. It can effectively reduce the power consumption of mobile phones; secondly, Qualcomm does not recommend VC in the 5G mobile phone reference design provided to brand customers in the near future; the last 5G is not popular in 2020, so 5G mobile phones will mostly integrate through 4G, or 5G and 4G. The way to go online, power consumption is lower than expected.
Subsequently, Guo Mingxi also predicted the adoption of the VC program in the mobile phone field in 2020. First, Apple, they have the advantages of hardware and software integration, so it is expected that the 2020 5G iPhone will follow the lower cost graphite sheet design instead of the market expected VC. Secondly, Huawei benefited from advanced SoC process and system design. Therefore, Huawei's 5G mobile phone power consumption in 2020 will be lower than expected, and Huawei's 2020 VC demand will be revised down to 50-60 million. It is believed that Huawei will use a large number of heat pipes or heat pipes + graphite sheets instead of VC. The third mention of Samsung, the market expects Samsung 5G A series mobile phones will use VC, but from the actual situation, only the highest-end S series and Note series will use VC, so Samsung's VC demand will be lower than expected. Finally, he mentioned other Chinese brands. Considering the high-power consumption of Qualcomm and MediaTek's mid-range 5G chips, and the 5G mobile phones only support Sub-6GHz, the power consumption is relatively low, so the VC demand will be lower than expected. .
At present, the market expects that the demand for VC in each month in 2020 is about 20 million pieces or more. However, Guo Minghao expects VC demand per month to be only about 9-10 million pieces, which is about 50% of the market expectation. Previously, the outside world speculated that the mobile phone field would use VC extensively, which led to the market expectation of VC demand is high.
However, from Guo Mingxi's discourse, we can analyze that the power consumption of 5G chips is generally not high, and the initial stage of 5G commercial use will be integrated with 5G and 4G, so the actual demand for the soaking plate will not be very high. Big.